RS Brief news Statistics for the first six months of the year: the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on an improvement

Statistics for the first six months of the year: the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on an improvement

September 2013

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The breakthrough from stagnation to growth has not yet taken place in the Russian economy, but the Ministry of Economic Development is hoping that June 2013 will see the end of the negative trend that has lasted for the entire first half of 2013, according to the deputy head of the Ministry Andrei Klepach. According to him, Russia's GDP rose by 1.7% per annum in the first half of 2013. In June 2013 Russia's economy grew by 1.5% compared to last June, but there was a zero growth once seasonal and year-round aspects had been factored in.

According to Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, in the 2nd quarter of 2013 Russia's GDP rose by 1.9% per annum. Mr. Klepach pointed out that according to the Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat), the Russian economy grew by 1.6% per annum in the first quarter of 2013.

As the deputy minister explained, the growth in the Russian economy in June was characterized by an upward trend in consumer demand. Turnover from retail sales in June 2013 rose by 0.8%, taking account of the seasonal and year-round factor. Mr. Klepach noted that the growth in retail sales was slowing: whereas in the first quarter of 2013 it stood at 4% per annum, in the second quarter it had fallen to 3.5%. "Be that as it may, retail sales and consumer demand are still the driving force of our economy," the deputy minister added.

June of this year was a disastrous month in terms of investment. According to Rosstat, investment in Russia's main capital fell by 3.7% in June in comparison with June 2012, and by 2.4% taking into account the seasonal and year-round factors, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. "If we compare that to the first half of last year, it's a fall of 1.4%," Mr. Klepach points out. The reason for this was the sudden collapse in the construction sector in June. The Ministry of Economic Development remains optimistic, however, that the second half of the year will balance the situation out with regard to investment, and that there will be a positive outcome at the end of the year. The ministry forecast growth of 4.6% in this figure.

Moreover, the deputy minister said that in August 2013 the ministry would be adjusting its forecast for the flow of capital out of the Russian Federation in 2013, in favour of an increase. According to the current official forecast, capital outflow of 30 billion dollars is expected.

According to the expert, under the draft version of the forecast this figure may reach 50 billion dollars. "The draft version currently stipulates about 50 billion dollars," he says. The deputy minister is nonetheless hoping to see slower capital outflow in the last part of 2013.

He notes that in June 2013, based on data regarding the balance of payments, capital inflow into the Russian Federation was recorded, but that does not mean that an upward trend has as yet been established. Mr. Klepach explained this as a standard effect related to the payment of dividends by Russian companies. In July, the deputy minister expects to see capital outflow from the Russian Federation. RS